What we learned in Week 0 for | College Fantasy Football
Week 0 takeaways: who to buy, who to fading
College football is back. We started the day in Dublin and ended it in Vegas, close to 14 straight hours of free scouting.
Quick note: Week 0 doesn't count in CollegeFFB, so the point references below are about relative performance, not anything that moved a leaderboard.
And since this is a salary cap game, 15 points from a $4.5M player is a very different thing than 15 points from a $14.0M player. Production is relative to price.
Alright. All 8 Week 0 games.
1) UNC vs TCU
I keep telling myself not to overreact to a Week 0 game in Dublin. NFL teams travel overseas and don't look like themselves. These are college athletes.
The good:
Jelani Thurman, $4.5M TE. Nice surprise. Four catches, all chunk plays, and what would have been 13.4 fantasy points. Looked like the focal point of the UNC offense. The problem is the schedule: bye in Week 1, bye again in Week 4, and that Week 4 bye is sandwiched between a game at Clemson and then a home vs Notre Dame. One to watch, but I'm revisiting him heading into Week 6.
Jeremy Payne, $7.5M RB. Far and away the best player on TCU's offense. Ripped off a few big runs, involved in the passing game, finished with 21.9 points. The one flag is a goal line carry vultured by Jon Denman, so the goal line role is worth monitoring. But TCU is going to have to lean on Payne all year, and at $7.5M, ambiguous goal line and all, I'm most likely bringing him in after his Week 1 bye.
The bad:
Demon June, $5.5M RB. There was hype building around June as a $5.5M sleeper. Maybe that changes, but he looked like the RB2 or RB3 in this offense, and that isn't enough to bring him in.
The TCU passing game. Again, rainy game in Ireland, don't overreact. That said, I was big on Jordan Dwyer coming into the year. He didn't play due to injury, but the TCU passing game around him looked rough. I'm not buying Dwyer or any other TCU receiving asset until I see it improve with my own eyes.
2) San Jose State vs USC
The good:
Trent Mosley, $5.0M. USC played without their top two receiving targets and it barely mattered, because the young guys picked up the slack. Mosley was the standout: 7 receptions, 118 yards, a touchdown. Hard to say the volume holds once the starters are healthy, but $5.0M to bet on him becoming the 1b in this offense is a price I'll pay.
Luke Weaver, $8.0M. What a game. Lincoln Riley was quick to point out that the late San Jose State surge came against USC's 3s and 4s, and sure, but if you were a USC fan watching the end of that game you probably felt a little squirmy. Weaver was the reason: 230+ passing, 40 rushing, 3 total TDs. And USC is far and away the toughest team he'll see all season. There's some magic here, and at $8.0M he could be a sneaky differential.
The bad:
The USC backfield. To be clear, USC ran the ball well. The issue for fantasy is predictable volume and opportunity. There were four rushing touchdowns, one of them by Mai'ava, and none of them by Waymond Jordan. The first team mostly rested after halftime, but I can't justify $8.5M for Jordan right now. King Miller at $7.0M is more tempting and had the better day, but this whole situation is wait and see for me.
3) NC State vs Virginia
The good:
Beau Pribula, $6.0M. As a Penn State alum I wish it had ended differently in Happy Valley, but it was great to see him put together a complete performance in his Virginia debut. 155 yards and 2 TDs through the air, another 110 on the ground. The rushing production makes him one of the best $6.0M plays in the game. Hats off, Beau.
The bad:
NC State's offense. All of it. We knew they had to reload, but this did not look good. I still believe CJ Bailey can be a good ACC quarterback this year, this just made me pump the brakes. Wait until further notice.
4) New Mexico State vs Florida State
The good:
FSU running backs. Samuel Singleton ($5.0M) and Ousmane Kromah ($6.0M) both looked like value at their price. I think Kromah eventually pulls away as the back to own, but if Singleton keeps the receiving work to himself, that caps Kromah a bit.
The bad:
More like "just okay," and I'm talking about Duce Robinson's 3 catches for 50 yards. Robinson is a talented receiver, but with Ashton Daniels at quarterback this offense looks like it's going to be built around the run, and that makes $9.0M hard to buy.
5) Jacksonville State vs North Dakota State
The good:
North Dakota State is in the FBS and won their first game. The most exciting program in the FCS over the past decade is here to stay, and I'm happy for the Bison.
The bad:
I'm not sure who I'd actually bring into my team. They spread the ball around a lot and I don't see a singular star in this offense yet. Just happy they're here. Team to watch.
6) Sacramento State vs Eastern Michigan
The good:
Nick Devereaux, $7.0M. I called him out in my Week 0 watchlist, and please don't pat me on the back too hard, because I also called out Hines and Dwyer and neither played a snap. But Devereaux made the most of it: 6 receptions, 73 yards, a touchdown. There's a case for him as a WR3 or flex on some teams.
The bad:
Nothing off the top of my head. My dog dug a pretty big hole in my backyard while this game was on. I'll go with that.
7) Hawaii vs Stanford
The good:
What a game, and a lot to take from it. First, Stanford might be a source of very cheap production this year. Micah Ford ($5.5M) rushed for 99 yards and 3 TDs. Davis Warren ($4.5M) threw for 300+ and a TD. At those prices you're taking a bet with almost no downside.
Tama Uiliata, $7.0M was the guy who stepped up in Pofele Ashlock's absence: 8 receptions, 62 yards, a TD. I want to see whether the volume sticks when Ashlock is back, but at that flex price he's worth watching.
The bad:
My bet was that Audric Harris ($8.5M) would be the number one option with Ashlock out. He finished with 2 catches for 10 yards. He was really solid last year, but this is another situation where the $8.5M tag isn't justified yet.
8) Memphis vs UNLV
The good:
Jaylin Carter, $7.0M had a 15 point day and looks to have a stranglehold on the Memphis RB1 job. Solid floor, and it came against a UNLV team projected as one of the best in the Group of 6. On the other sideline, Jackson Arnold ($10.0M) threw for 291 and 2 TDs and added 54 yards and a score on the ground. Neither is cheap, but both look like real production with real floors.
The bad:
Bad is harsh here, but in a budget format all production is relative to price. Jai'Den Thomas ($14.0M) didn't get the volume, and UNLV's best offensive lineman, Austin Boyd, went down in the fourth quarter. Thomas is probably the most talented player on that roster, but at $14.0M I need to see much heavier usage to take him over someone like Caleb Hawkins or Jadan Baugh. He's electric once he gets going. I'm just watching from a distance for now.
TL;DR
Buying: Jeremy Payne ($7.5M), Trent Mosley ($5.0M), Beau Pribula ($6.0M), Micah Ford ($5.5M), Davis Warren ($4.5M)
Watching: Jelani Thurman ($4.5M), Luke Weaver ($8.0M), Tama Uiliata ($7.0M), Jaylin Carter ($7.0M), King Miller ($7.0M)
Not yet: Waymond Jordan ($8.5M), Audric Harris ($8.5M), Duce Robinson ($9.0M), Jai'Den Thomas ($14.0M), the entire TCU passing game
Anything I missed? How did Week 0 wreck your Week 1 plans?